Statistics NZ Population Projections to 2031
Statistics New Zealand have just released their population predictions out until 2031, 21 years away. The nation’s economic hub Auckland, is projected to provide for 60% of our country’s population growth and number 1,940,000 people. I am very excited by this as it doesn’t take a tax lawyer to work out that these nearly 2 million will need houses. The 2006 census showed that Auckland had 1.37 million residents and Auckland is thought to have just over 1.4 million residents currently. This means over the next 21 years Auckland will have 570,000 more people and need 211,000 more houses (assuming a 2.7 people per household ratio). Around 2/3 of this increase is natural (from births exceeding deaths) and the remainder is from migration internally inside New Zealand to our country’s best city, or externally from overseas. What a great time to be a property investor!
Consent issuance is already lagging in Auckland, some skilled tradespeople are going for better wages in Australia, where there is lower unemployment too. However
North vs South Island
The population of the North Island is projected to increase by an average of 0.9 percent a year between 2006 and 2031, from 3.19 million to 4.00 million. Seventy percent of this growth will be in the Auckland region with an increase of 1.4 percent a year. The remainder of the North Island is projected to grow by an average of 0.5 percent a year during this period. By 2031, the North Island is projected to be home to 78 percent of New Zealand’s population, compared with 76 percent in 2006.
The population of the South Island is projected to increase by 0.6 percent a year, from just under 1 million in 2006 to 1.15 million in 2031. The subnational population estimates indicate that the South Island’s population surpassed 1 million between 30 June 2006 and 30 June 2007. The faster projected growth of the North Island mainly reflects its higher rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) resulting from a higher birth rate and lower death rate than the South Island.
Aging Population
The population of all territorial authority areas is expected to be older in future (medium series). However, there will be considerable variation between areas, largely because of each area’s current population age structure and different fertility and migration patterns. At the national level, the median age (half the population is younger, and half older, than this age) is projected to increase from 36 years in 2006 to 40 years in 2031. At the subnational level in 2006, the median age ranged from 31 years in Manukau and Hamilton cities to 46 years in Thames-Coromandel district. By 2031, the median age is projected to range from 35 years in Manukau city to 55 years in Thames-Coromandel and South Wairarapa districts. A median age of 50 years or older is projected for eight territorial authority areas in 2031. Papakura and Manukau cities are project to have the youngest population, and South Wairarapa and Thames-Coromandel Districts are projected to have the oldest population.
Mortality
Under the medium mortality assumption, life expectancy at birth at the national level is assumed to increase from 78.0 years for males and 82.2 years for females in 2005–07 to 82.1 years for males and 85.3 years for females in 2031. The assumed medium variant life expectancy at birth in 2007–11 ranges from 73.8 years for males and 77.7 years for females for Kawerau district to 83.7 years for males and 87.3 years for females for Queenstown-Lakes district. In 2027–31 the assumed life expectancy at birth ranges from a low of 75.5 years for males and 79.1 years for females for Kawerau district to a high of 88.2 years for males and 91.0 years for females for Queenstown-Lakes district.
Enjoy the 20/20 Cricket versus Australia tonight and Sunday
