The Reserve Bank Governor, Dr Alan Bollard has just announced that the Official Cash Rate (“OCR”) is to remain unchanged at 2.50%. This move was widely expected by economists. On discussions with my business banking contacts they say that they have already factored in a 0.5% increase into fixed rates by 30 June of this year.
Dr Bollard’s press statement interestingly said that:
the New Zealand economy continues to recover…
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If the economy continues to recover in line with our December projections, we would expect to begin removing policy stimulus around the middle of 2010.”
As a result I predict that the major banks will not change their floating rates, but perhaps edge up their 1 – 3 year rates a little bit further. The floating rates will rise when the OCR rises. I predict that the OCR will stay unchanged on March 11, April 29, but then rise by 0.25% on 10 June 2010.
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