David Whitburn

Unemployment rises

Unemployment is hitting certain areas of New Zealand hard.  Sadly many thousands of New Zealanders have been made redundant or their businesses have failed.  Work and Income New Zealand is being overworked in delivering unemployment benefits and increasing numbers of invalid benefits (for long term sick people).  Sadly the suicide and bankruptcy rates are climbing too.  Whilst we may technically be out of a recession it doesn’t totally feel like it.  In Auckland where I live and most of my mentoring students also live and invest in, I note that it is slower to rent properties in most parts of West & South Auckland and Papakura.  These lower socio-economic areas where unemployment hits that extra bit harder with unskilled workers in the manufacturing and other sectors, as well as workers in the ailing construction sector.

Here’s a table from Reserve Bank Statistics (on 5 November 2009) of NZ’s unemployment and employment:

I have a friend who has sold their home who is looking to rent in the East Coast Bays of Auckland’s North Shore.  With its commanding views, good schools, access to beaches and other well to do people, this area is moving up.  Properties are not remaining vacant for long, and it is not uncommon for a property rented to have more than 500 hits within the first week of it being listed on TradeMe.  With 3 weeks minimum notice period under the Residential Tenancies Act there is no reason for you to have any vacancies if you own a property in these areas.  Simply advertise your property on TradeMe or ensure that your property manager has done this, and you should have a tenant paying rent on the day your previous tenant moves out in these premium areas.  The same is true for Mums and Dads positioning their kids into Epsom, Remuera, Parnell and north Mt Eden to get into the exclusive Auckland Boys Grammar and Epsom Girls Grammar Schools.

The Barfoot, Ray White, Crocker Auctions I have been to this month (28 properties auctioned in total) have all been very well attended – and I can assure you that a well presented, well marketed property in a desirable area, will sell at a very high price.  The good agents who I network with tell me of Kiwis (lawyers, investment bankers, accountants, business managers etc) coming back from the United Kingdom in their 30s getting ready to nest and start their families.  Suburbs like Ellerslie, Meadowbank, St Johns are getting good growth and interest in the rung down from the Epsom, Parnell, Remuera Grammar zone paradise, and the Eastern Bay suburbs of St Heliers, Kohimarama, Mission Bay and Orakei are getting great upward price pressure too.  Their are too many suburbs in Auckland to go through them all, but the central auckland, east auckland and north shore suburbs are going up in rents and house prices.  There is still far less pressure on those properties in south and west auckland for rents, but values are slowly creeping up again.

Here’s the Quotable Value data showing House Prices and the Value of Housing Stock in NZ recovering this year:

Now this is great news that the market is recovering again.  However a word of caution that I must give as I help friends back from the UK get settled into their Auckland homes.  They were doing their numbers off the floating rate.  An easy enough mistake to make, as floating rates are the main rates in the UK and indeed Australia, as most people simply float money.  It takes a professional to monitor the rates and advise what the ten year average rates are, what is good value etc.

Please note that interest rates are at emergency levels – do not do your numbers off them.  They are at 40 yr low levels, prior to the high inflation 1970s and 1980s.  I like to do my numbers based on the 10 year average interest rates, and amalgamating all the periods (floating, 6 month, 1 year, 2 year, 3 year, 4 year and 5 year rates) and getting an average for each one.  This has given me 8.0%  As a result I put into my buying decider spreadsheet, as well as encouraging and teaching all of my mentoring students to use 8% as the interest rate.  That doesn’t mean taking the 8% rate – it may in fact mean having a revolving credit account and paying down some principal that can be redrawn in the future if necessary.

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